Live Chat: Demystifying the Economic Survey

February 27, 2015 05:02 pm | Updated September 23, 2017 12:54 pm IST

The Finance Minister tabled the Economic Survey on February 27, 2015 in the Lok Sabha.

Our Business team: Economy Editor Puja Mehra, Business Editor - Online and Technology Sriram Srinivasan, and Deputy Business Editor K.T Jagannathan answered readers' questions on the Survey.

Here is a transcript of the live chat:

The Hindu: Welcome to The Hindu's live chat on demystifying the Economic Survey.

Comment From Praveen: Is the Indian Economy back on track? What does the survey say?

Comment From S Murthy: How of the statistical data used in the survey is valid? Are our acturians really free to work on actual numbers?

Comment From Sunil: Is our common man life changed in last 9 month?

Comment From Pranesh: 8.1% growth, doesnt it seem over ambitiuos

Comment From Guest: Whether the data indicate only the sentiments or real growth in the shop flooor/ farm level production?

Comment From Aleen: Does Economic Survey give equal amount of prominence to social development as to GDP growth?

Comment From B S Shiva: Whether the data indicate only the sentiments or real shop floor/farm level production?

Comment From Rohit: what does survey says about negating inflation in the market ?

Comment From Aleen: What is the influence the Govt in ruling can have on statistics behind economic survey? Is there any maker checker mechanism?

Puja Mehra: Hi everybody. Am Puja. Happy to take the first questions from Praveen, The Survey says that it can be said with certainty that the Indian economy is well placed on the path of recovery. But the CEA ARvind Subramnian added that he would exercise caution in seconding any commentary stating Indian economy is surging.

Comment From Guest: What about the dismal growth in the agriculture sector?

Puja Mehra: Eco Survey projects farm sector growth to decline from 3.7% in 2013-14 to 1.1% in the current year due to weaker monsoon

The Hindu: Our Economy Editor Puja Mehra and Business Editor - Online and Technology Sriram Srinivasan will take questions now.

Puja Mehra: Hi Murthy. The Survey relies on data from the Central Statistics Organisation for its analyses and projections. The Survey does say that it is somewhat puzzled by the growth rate as per the revised CSO GDP data.

Comment From B S Shiva: what about the rural farm level capital formation by small and marginal farmers and also the MSME and unorganised sector...both of them contribute almost 3/4 of the employment generation in the country

Comment From GUEST: what is the share of agriculure and industrial sector in gdp

Comment From Guest: Are the projected GDP growth estimates showing that the economy is bottoming out?

Comment From Guest: Is the role of Economic Survey is to bring positive sentiments into action?

Comment From B S Shiva: Agriculture do not have special mention in the documents as it used to have earlier?

Comment From B S Shiva: I dont see any real miracle during last 09 months except few jargons, impact of which will take time to show? then how can such incremental growth be shown in such a small period of time?

Puja Mehra: Well an economy tends to have a natural pace of growth even in the absence of reforms that is assuming there have been no reforms. The Survey has put out a list of reforms that it says are being implemented by the Modi Government. The Survey also indicated that some reforms such as the GST are on the anvil.

Puja Mehra: Hi Pranesh.. thanks for your questions. In my opinion, given last year's growth estimate the projection of 8.1% does not seem very ambitious

Comment From Srikanth: How the GDP is re calculated based on modified parameters? Is that reflecting the real india progress?

Comment From Vijay: Read that India performed well in stock markets which is very closer to china. So which means that will surpass it soon or it needs more time?

Comment From Divyesh: Why economic survey do not reflect steps taken to realise the suggestion given by the previous Economic survey?

Comment From Guest: The Indian Government recently revised last year's growth figures applying a new statistical method and projected better GDP growth figures than originally posted. The Economic Survey now projects 8 percent growth. Are these figures based on the new statistical model ? If so, how reliable is this new model

Sriram Srinivasan: Hi. I am Sriram Srinivasan. The economic survey recognises that the new set of data needs a bit more understanding. It actually says that there is a case for viewing India as a recovering rather than surging economy.

The Hindu: We have a flood of questions and we're taking them one at a time.

Puja Mehra: Hi Aleen. Yes the Survey has gone in to some detail in analysing if India's subsidies, for instance have had any transformational impact on the living standards of India's poor. It has concluded that subsidies have not had much impact.

Comment From Nithesh: Have schemes like MNREGA have contributed to growth in any. Is it possible to redesign them to make it less burdensome on the taxpayer

Comment From B S Shiva: Agriculture need to be given more attention now also.. corporatising it like everything else will create only disasters.. market economy need to take balanced view for ensuring sustainable and equitable development of agriculture and allied sector.. it need more than some selected jargons and big word which seems good only while reading but does not have real impact at ground level when we need to ensure good future for millions of farmers

Comment From Deepak Kumar: Ma'm mere giving the projection without any solid backing will bring economy on desired track? Is not these are just rhetoric ?

Sriram Srinivasan: There is quite a bit of focus in the survey on where India ails. For instance, in the spheres of private investment, on the issue of subsidies, on agriculture markets. That criticism may not be appropriate.

Comment From kiran jose: Giving more importance to containing the fiscal deficit will ultimately lead to spending cuts which is detrimental to the economy.

Comment From Guest: We Indians want instant results.

Comment From Viswanathan: Does the historic low oil prices factor into our real economic growth?

Puja Mehra:

Yes, the Survey says that one of the factors that will lift growth during 2015-16 will be the continuing trend of benign influence of global crude prices

via·about 18 hours ago

Sriram Srinivasan:

It does. It surely makes the job of meeting fiscal targets far, far easier. It has been one of the favourable factors, for sure.

via·about 18 hours ago

Comment From Deepak Kumar

I am agree with kiran jose, Govt should adopt more sound and logical ways to contain Fiscal Deficit(FD). Simply reducing the expenses is not the solution.

via·about 18 hours ago

Comment From karan

these economic growth rate and inflation data has ever left any impact on indian common man

via·about 18 hours ago

Comment From B S Shiva

The irrigation system, farm mechanisation and many such initiatives need to be given due regard keeping in view the SF/MF not just the corporates

via·about 18 hours ago

Comment From B S Shiva

statistics only cant ensure economic growth.. we need agronomy, economy, science, technology, empathy and many such values systems to ensure sustainable development

via·about 18 hours ago

Comment From kiran jose

The claim that India will be the fastest growing large economy sounds too optimistic.There is not much tangible changes on the ground to support the claim.

via·about 18 hours ago

Comment From Guest

Whether the current trend in the industrial growth can increase the fiscal deficit ?

via·about 18 hours ago

Comment From Srikanth

Inflation is eased majorly because of dip in crude oil prices. what if has been increased again in very volatile industry which impacted the projected growth rate?

via·about 18 hours ago

Puja Mehra:

Inflation in India has fallen not just on account of easing global crude prices but also falling prices of several food items.

via·about 18 hours ago

Sriram Srinivasan:

The near term expectation on oil prices is benign. No rude surprises is the expectation.

via·about 18 hours ago

Comment From Krishna Prasad

Sir, just like we changed GDP methodology and took growth rate to more than 7%, is there a possibility of another revision in numbers so that we can reach double-digit growth rate? :)

via·about 17 hours ago

Sriram Srinivasan:

In fact, an early line in the survey is this: "A political mandate for reform and a benign external environment have created a historic moment of opportunity to propel India onto a double-digit growth trajectory." Without a revision!

via·about 17 hours ago

Comment From Deepak Kumar

@Kiran jose, but at least govt is pretending to grow. It does not matter whether it will grow fastest or not.

via·about 17 hours ago

Comment From R Santhanam

By 2017, we can expect that this Govt's policy changes will bear fruit and the economy will start to accelerate at a better rate

via·about 17 hours ago

Sriram Srinivasan:

There's a lot more to do, actually. The capacity of the government to invest, given that private sector seems constrained to invest. That means cutting unproductive expenditure, including subsidies which aren't really reaching the appropriate population (one from the survey), and then go ahead and spend in building capacity. That would test the government's resolve.

via·about 17 hours ago

Comment From MSM

Cut fiscal deficit,It will bring down Govt borrowing and reduce interest rate for everybody.Which in turn will boost economy and reduce inflation.

via·about 17 hours ago

Puja Mehra

Are there any questions about the Survey released earlier today ?

via·about 17 hours ago

Comment From HK

going growth rate to 8% has changed rupee value against dollar or euro?

via·about 17 hours ago

Comment From Deepak Kumar

@Srikanth, I agree that dip in crude oil pricing has its say in the inflation rollback but it does not mean govt have ruled out the increase in oil price in future.

via·about 17 hours ago

Comment From Guest

Will be there a cut in the kerosene and food subsidies?

via·about 17 hours ago

Puja Mehra:

Since the Survey is not a policy announcement document it does not address this questions. It does, however, show how the subsidies on kerosene and food have not transformed lives of the poor

via·about 17 hours ago

Comment From kiran jose

Will we be able to see a current account surplus in the near future as the crude oil prices are falling?

via·about 17 hours ago

Puja Mehra:

Many private analysts have projected so on the basis of the trend but the Survey has not talked about a current account surplus.

via·about 17 hours ago

Comment From kishore kumar p

govt benefited from good weather condition and low crude prices this year, that is the main cause of low food inflation.

via·about 17 hours ago

Comment From Manjari

why are there so many firsts for this government...?? from changing the name of the Planning Commission to changing the methodology of calculating the GDP ... however indispensable changes are, people at this point in time need to witness frequent growth and not such frequent changes..

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