There has been a significant improvement in cyclone forecast and, presently, the IMD is giving a seven-day window, Laxman Singh Rathore, Director General of Meteorology, IMD, has said.
Interacting with reporters at GITAM University, he said, while a 24-hour forecast was given in 2009, it went up to three days in 2012, and a week, including pre-genesis of the formation of the system, in 2014.
New models developed were able to give projections on a cyclone intensifying and weakening, he said.
“Phailin had rapidly intensified in 24 hours and we were able to give pointed forecast, though there was controversy about the U.S. stating that the IMD was underestimating,” Dr. Rathore said.
He said that the Indian experience about its basin and getting oceanic observations every 10 minutes enabled it.
On new technologies, he said that the IMD, working on the U.S. Hurricane weather research forecast model, indigenised it and was further improving on it.
Information from satellites and oceanic observations are critical. With better satellite information, we are able to monitor better in terms of location and intensity and physical characteristics of a cyclone. A cyclone will come much later, but rain commences early.
“We have to warn people about the time the first rain starts and how the winds build up,” he said, elaborating on the importance of preciseness.
“For marine and aviation warnings, we have different mechanisms. Huge impact is there when it comes to land, and here we have to develop accuracy,” Dr. Rathore said.
On estimating the extent of inundation, he said that the Met Department forecast included intensity, spread, surge, and timeline.
Dr. Rathore said inundation and flood-mapping was a different ball game.
“We need to do research in that. We need to have digital elevation mapping and accordingly decide on depth and inundation,” he said.
On IMD reporting 210 kmph wind speed during Hudhud and 270 kmph reportedly recorded elsewhere, he said, “Where and how it was recorded matters.”
IMD’s prediction was scientific not just by one measure, but satellite, radar and ground observation too.
