NCP, NC exits leave UPA limping

A section in Congress feels it is time to forge alliances

October 24, 2014 03:10 am | Updated July 07, 2016 12:55 am IST - New Delhi

Jammu and kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah  adressing to media persons in Srinagar on 03, September 2011.

Jammu and kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah adressing to media persons in Srinagar on 03, September 2011.

With the exit of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in Maharashtra and the National Conference (NC) from the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in recent months, the Congress stands much weaker than even when it won just 44 seats in the Lok Sabha election.

In Maharashtra, the party’s strength has been halved in the recent Assembly election; in Jammu and Kashmir, its strength will be tested in the coming election.

In the coming months, if the UPA is to remain a reality, the Congress will have to decide whether it wishes to abandon the path it adopted at its Shimla conclave in 2003 to drop its reservations about coalition politics: it was Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s leadership and the Shimla line that saw the Congress come to power at the head of the UPA in 2004, after eight years in the opposition.

Today, the UPA stands diminished: apart from the Congress, the parties in it are the Rashtriya Lok Dal in Uttar Pradesh (zero Lok Sabha seats); Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar (four); Janata Dal (United) (two); Indian Union Muslim League in Kerala (two); Kerala Congress (one); Mahan Dal in Uttar Pradesh (zero); Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (two); and a faction of Revolutionary Socialist Party (one) in Kerala.

In the recent Maharashtra Assembly election, in which they fought separately, the Congress and the NCP won 42 and 41 seats, respectively, coming third and fourth. In the Jammu and Kashmir election, the Congress and the NC will fight separately.

One emerging view in the Congress is that the results of the Maharashtra election show it has done better than it did in the Lok Sabha election, in which it won just two seats and its then alliance partner, the NCP, four.

In the recent by-elections in Bihar, the Congress forged an alliance with the RJD and the JD(U), and the combine won six of the 10 seats. And in the coming Assembly election in Jharkhand, the Congress will contest in combination with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, the RJD, and the JD(U).

What was true in 2003 — the Congress’s need to forge alliances to come to power — is even truer in 2014, with the BJP having emerged with a full majority at the Centre. More important, the age of anti-Congressism is over, and if the Congress is to stay relevant politically, the party has little choice but to once again make new friends, a significant number in its ranks believe.

The Congress has grown weaker over the past decade as a succession of parties left the UPA. They include the Telangana Rashtra Samithi in 2006; the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in 2007; the People’s Democratic Party and the Pattali Makkal Katchi in 2009; and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Trinamool Congress, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen and the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha in 2012.

The Left Front that decided to support the UPA government from outside in 2004 withdrew itself in 2008: that may not have weakened the alliance in numbers, but, in retrospect, the moral and ideological backing it provided had been invaluable — and only its departure showed its significance.

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