The recent political development in Delhi presents an interesting case. One wonders why the Bharatiya Janata Party, which won 31 of the 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly but refused to form the government, is now >desperate to do so when the number of MLAs in the party has gone down from 31 to 28. Three of its leaders — Harsh Vardhan, Parvesh Verma and Ramvir Singh Biduri — who got elected to the Delhi Assembly during the 2013 Assembly elections, were elected to the Lok Sabha in the recent elections. The BJP can form the government only after engineering a split in either the Congress or the Aam Aadmi Party, or by indulging in horse-trading, a political act which the >party promised not to indulge in . The desperate move of the BJP is not only because it lusts for power; there is a larger politics involved in it. The party is seeking to prevent fresh Assembly elections from taking place in Delhi.
The AAP’s performance For the AAP, if Assembly elections are not held again in Delhi — the main source of its oxygen — the party may either witness a natural death or could weaken over time with its leaders and supporters moving to other parties.
Last year, the AAP won 28 seats in the Delhi Assembly, formed the government after initial reluctance, but resigned after being in power for only 49 days. It charged the Opposition of not allowing the government to pass the Lokpal Bill. The party leader and former Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, who stated that he hardly cared for the Chief Minister’s chair and that he would leave the chair a hundred times to ensure that the Lokpal Bill gets passed, is again very keen to form the government. There is hardly any indication of the situation being favourable enough for Mr. Kejriwal to get the Lokpal Bill passed if he assumes power again. But Mr. Kejriwal at least wants to seize this opportunity to showcase his ability to govern. On the other hand, there is hardly any indication that the people of Delhi have given the BJP a mandate to govern. True, the vote share of the BJP increased from 33 per cent during the Assembly elections to 46 per cent in the Lok Sabha elections, but an increased vote share hardly indicates that the people of Delhi now want the party to rule the State. In all the political drama that has been unfolding in Delhi in the last few weeks, the Congress has remained a silent spectator. What pushed the BJP and AAP to take this U-turn?
The BJP is trying hard to form the government in order to avoid elections while the AAP is desperate to force another round of elections. The two stand to gain if they succeed in their own efforts. The AAP, after performing well in the Delhi Assembly elections, failed miserably in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Of the 432 seats contested, the party won only 4 seats and polled 2.04 per cent votes. But more than the victory, what is important to note is the nature of defeat. Most of the party candidates suffered a humiliating defeat. The party only polled a sizeable proportion of votes in Delhi (32.9 per cent) and Punjab (24.4 per cent) while in all other States the party’s vote share hardly went beyond 2 per cent.
>Read: AAP: a fledgling party in Indian politics
Leaders blamed each other following the party’s debacle. Manish Sisodia, for instance, charged Yogendra Yadav of joining the party only with the aim of splitting it or destroying it. While it is almost certain that the AAP may not be able to perform as well as it did during the 2013 Assembly elections, fresh elections in Delhi may be able to help the party in several ways.
>Read: Delhi: AAP’s debacle scripted BJP’s clean sweep
First, the elections may force the warring factions to come together. in Delhi. Second, even if the AAP does not win the elections, it can be sure of being the main Opposition party to the BJP in Delhi. In the present scenario, the Congress can hardly hope to revive itself in such a short period. A sizeable vote share for the AAP may help in keeping the morale of the party leaders and workers high. If the party manages to increase its vote share despite getting defeated, the party will still be in a position to say that its popularity has increased. But if the BJP manages to form the government, Assembly elections in Delhi may not be held for the next four or five years. With the AAP declaring that the party may not contest the Assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra, it would not be seen in any electoral contest. In order to be seen as a viable political alternative, it is essential for the party to remain in electoral contests. The party views Delhi, its strongest turf, as the best place to contest elections.
Deferring elections
Apart from the fact that the BJP may want to defer the elections, there may be other considerations for the party’s desperation to form government. The BJP suffers some kind of leadership handicap in Delhi after Mr. Harsh Vardan moved to the Centre. This may affect the party’s prospects in case the Assembly elections are held afresh. After a splendid victory in the Lok Sabha elections, the party does not want to be seen as declining in popularity (assuming that there may be a decline in the vote share of the party if it wins elections). There is a serious possibility of this happening as disenchantment is beginning to creep in against the ruling BJP among a section of voters. Findings of the post-poll survey conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies indicate that of those who voted for the BJP in Delhi during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, 33 per cent voted due to the Narendra Modi factor. However, there are chances that some of them may not vote for the party in the Delhi Assembly elections.
(Sanjay Kumar is professor and director, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, New Delhi..)
